River permit lottery odds, 2025
President Trump’s latest executive order directs the Forest Service to adjust river lotteries to favor US citizens. Would this actually change anything?
The hunting order promises boaters a weighted lottery, a citizens-first rule and a ban on bots. On the Middle Fork, removing every non-US applicant would move your odds from 1.79% to 1.80%. The full piece looks at what the order would actually change, from the river lotteries to corner crossing, and why it reads like a midterm press release.
Read the full pieceMiddle Fork: 2025 permit lottery applicants and winners
- 19,761applicants
- 353winners (1.79% odds)
- 2international winners
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Main Salmon: 2025 permit lottery applicants and winners
- 18,147applicants
- 309winners (1.70% odds)
- 3international winners
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Selway: 2025 permit lottery applicants and winners
- ≈10,150applicants
- ≈62winners (≈0.6% odds)
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Hells Canyon: 2025 permit lottery applicants and winners
- ≈7,800applicants
- ≈333winners (≈4.3% odds)
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Grand Canyon: latest main lottery applicants and winners
- ≈7,700applicants
- ≈448winners (≈5.8% odds)
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Odds of winning a permit, by lottery
- Middle Fork19,761 applications for 353 permits
- 1.79%
- Middle ForkWithout non-US applicants
- 1.80%
- Main Salmon18,147 applications for 309 permits
- 1.70%
- Main SalmonWithout non-US applicants
- 1.72%
- SelwayAbout 10,150 applications for 62 permits
- ≈0.6%
- Hells CanyonAbout 7,800 applications for 333 permits
- ≈4.3%
- Grand CanyonAbout 7,700 applications for 448 permits
- ≈5.8%
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Sources
- USFS 2025 Middle Fork and Main Salmon Lottery Entry and Success Statistics
- Paddling Magazine on the American Whitewater survey and 2023 Selway numbers
- Recreation.gov, Hells Canyon Snake River (4 Rivers)
- USFS HCNRA Snake River Floaters Guide (private launch limits)
- NPS 2026 Grand Canyon Lottery Statistics
- Executive Order 14429, Reinvigorating America’s Hunting Heritage